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It is said that if you drop a frog into a pot with boiling water, it will naturally jump out, trying to escape. Conversely, if you place it in one with lukewarm water which you are heating gradually, the frog will remain there until it boils to death, oblivious of the situation. I don’t know if this is actually the case, but the boiling frog problem is a stunningly accurate metaphor for the state of affairs in the world today.

The Boiling Frog, from Metaphor to Problem

Let’s take a look at the social situation in Greece, the proverbial lab rat of the globalized market economy. One ongoing discourse in relation to the woes that have befallen the Greek people is: why don’t they react? Why aren’t they on the streets, protesting? Why isn’t there a revolution? The lack of response (for a people known for their courage and tenacity against overwhelming odds) baffles modern Greeks. It confuses them to the extent that all kinds of outlandishly bizarre theories have been proposed. Some of the most entertaining ones include… chemtrails (planes spreading chemicals in the atmosphere to keep the people subdued).

I can tell you for a fact, that science fiction often comes up with fanciful answers to real-life questions that lack a simple, convincing reply. In other words, I would speculate that people find such an ignorantly preposterous explanation as chemtrails plausible, because the alternative (which we’ll get to in a moment) seems too puzzling, too complex, too difficult to process. It’s a bit like blaming immigrants for the loss of your job – it’s easier, it requires no effort, and you don’t have to do anything much about it (and certainly you don’t need to exercise critical thinking and ponder on the possibility that your job was lost thanks to austerity measures and capitalist greed). Believing in conspiracies pats you on the back and absolves you from collective responsibility.

Why Don’t People React to Change?

But back to the real reasons for the lack of reaction; and back to the boiling frog. If you take a group of people (municipal employees, let’s assume) and tell them “look, this year we can’t give you any pay raise”, they’ll sulk. They’ll complain, but basically they’ll say “oh well…” and do nothing. Next year, you’ll tell them that the situation is really dire (they see it all around them) and announce a 5% cut. They’ll protest even more, but swallow it still. Then the next year, you can cut another 10%, but because other professionals see even greater cuts, they’ll again do nothing (and probably count their lucky stars).

You can continue this way, until 50% of their income is obliterated. I’m not making any of these numbers up, this is the reality many Greeks have to face (those still having jobs, that is; most have lost theirs altogether). Now imagine if the government had announced on year one a 50% cut straight away, effective immediately. The people would then definitely protest, and violently; the frog would immediately jump out of its pot.

A Science Fiction Example of the Boiling Frog Problem

One of my (few) favorite TV shows is Black Mirror, a science-fiction series dealing with social issues related one way or another to technology. In the episode titled “Shut Up and Dance” (season 3, episode 3), a teenager is blackmailed into committing various acts by hackers threatening to release a video of him masturbating.

Such an outcome wouldn’t be exactly catastrophic, but then again the acts the teenager needs to perform aren’t initially difficult or controversial either. He receives instructions to go to a certain place, or deliver a certain package. It feels like something worth the effort, just to get done with the unpleasant situation. But the more he follows these instructions, the more criminal and difficult they become. In the end, the teenager faces the ultimate dilemma: to kill someone or lose his own life.

Now, if the choice would have been straight away between murder and a video of one’s sex life circulating among their friends, it is extremely unlikely one would choose to commit murder. But the predicament – masterfully exposed by the episode, also presenting an ambiguous plot twist in its finale – is based on the boiling frog problem. It is easier to accept a gradual degradation, until you commit acts (or, on the flip side, ignore wrongs performed on you) you wouldn’t have if presented straight away.

Possible Explanations

There are two elements in this behavior:

• one is the tendency to accept gradual change, believing (fooling yourself into believing, rather) that it’s only a temporary/isolated change.
• the second element (at which I hinted earlier) is the comparison between you and other groups around you. If you are still more or less alright while the world around you is falling apart, you tend to stay quiet lest you will lose whatever little you have. Similarly, if you happen to still have a job, you won’t go to an unemployment rally. If you still have a home, you won’t join those protesting against foreclosure. And if you still feel only a mild heat under your feet, you won’t join the frogs croaking and sizzling.

And this is how we are all controlled into isolation, separated from one another, deprived of the one and only thing that we, the 99% have and they, the 1% don’t: Unity.

Someone else has said it far more eloquently than I can, so I will paraphrase him:

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—
and there was no one left to speak for me.