February 6, 2023
Humans Are Predictable (and That’s Fine)
All of us humans are predictable – including this very statement and this entire post. That is, it’s inherently predictable to say humans are predictable. You might have even seen a movie where a character begins to say “You can’t figure me out, I’m really…” and another character completes the phrase: “unpredictable?”
Though I don’t have any data to support my claim, it feels most people would prefer not to be thought of as predictable. Perhaps it’s a concept making us uncomfortable, as it alludes to free will – or lack thereof.
Are humans predictable? I’d say we are. But – and here’s the twist in the proverbial plot – that’s likely a good thing.
The Predictability of Nostalgia
Inspiration for this post came after noticing an interesting pattern. Go to YouTube, find a fairly popular older song, and go to the comments section. Then do the same with another song, as popular and from the same era.
What do you notice?
Here is a comment from “Tonight, Tonight”, by The Smashing Pumpkins:
This song takes me back to being a geeky 16 year old 90s kid, spending long summers singing with guitars around fires with good friends, beers in our hands and life stretching out forever in front of us. Billy made those nights immortal <3
Here’s another comment, from another song, from a different country – indeed, a different continent. It’s “Mare Mare”, by Luca Carboni (I’m translating from Italian):
In this moment of Italian desperation, the sweet memory of the 90s summers makes me smile… Ice creams for a few lire [the old Italian currency], good-hearted, smiling girls, little SMS of love, and Luca Carboni in the jukebox.
I bet if we could find a popular 90s song from Mongolia, Indonesia, or Peru, we’d see similar comments. But how’s that an argument for humans being predictable?
Humans Being Predictable Is an Experience/Memory Problem
Remember my post and memory and experience? I there said how it’s problematic to use memory to construct an argument:
The disconnect between experience and memory is a problem when you want to construct an argument. “Back when I was a kid, life was easier. Therefore, things are becoming worse”.
However, it’s also an intuitive thing to do. You remember it was a certain way, therefore (the simple answer is), it was that way. Predictability enters the picture once we realize the method to reach such conclusions is common.
In other words, Joe from Miami, Mario from Rome, and Hidetoshi from Fukuoka, all rely on specific patterns and combinations to construct experience and (re)construct memory. A song forming a mental anchor to a previous instance of yourself feels unique, whereas in actual fact it’s just a case of being special like… everyone else.
If Humans Are Predictable, What About Free Will?
Here’s a somewhat peculiar statement about free will: It doesn’t matter if we actually have free will; it’s only the illusion of free will that does.
In other words, the importance of having genuine freedom to decide isn’t much different than believing that we do. Free will is important to us for reasons we aren’t quite sure.
I mean, if I asked you now, would you rather have free will or not, there’s an overwhelming chance you’d rather prefer the former. Humans don’t want to be predictable, they want to be considered random, free.
But if I then asked you why, what would you reply?
Why is it important to have free will?
You would likely offer a response relevant to identity, consciousness, and the like. The difficulty in answering the question is precisely why the illusion of free will serves the same purpose as free will.
Predictability vs Chaos
Though we would like to think we’re unpredictable, we don’t want others (and life in general) to be. It’s a paradoxical state, perhaps, but ultimately sense-making. Most people want simple answers. They also want to avoid responsibility, opting for heroes of all sorts.
And so, though we’re all predictable, it’s something we’re deep down fine with. Perhaps we can fool ourselves a bit regarding our own predictability, but overall we like predictability. We like the safety it brings, and as social beings we also like that other humans, being predictable, are easy to relate to.
We like the same songs, we have the same kinds of memories. We’re boring, but hey, it’s an absurd life!
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We’re genetically wired to look for and /see/ patterns. We’re not alone in this, most mammals do it otherwise they’d never learn from ‘near misses’.
I think the unpredictability thing comes from associating unpredictability with control [of our own destiny]. If we’re unpredictable, then we’re less likely to be…attacked?
One of the big paradoxes of human nature is that we’re perfectly ok with wanting X and also wanting its exact opposite, at the same time. 🙂
Spot on about paradoxes. It’s like that funny quote, I don’t know what I want but I won’t stop until I get it.